Groundwater use in relation to surface water...
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Groundwater%20use%20in%20relation%20to%20surface%20water%20availability%20under%20climate%20change%20in%20the%20Murray%E2%80%93Darling%20Basin.pdf
Authors: Stephanie Clark, Sreekanth Janardhanan, Dennis Gonzalez and Guobin Fu
Date of Publication: June 2025
With projected declines in rainfall and increased climate variability, groundwater is expected to play a more significant role in supplementing water demand.
The study underscores the inter-relatedness in the use of surface and groundwater resources in the Basin which offers opportunity for conjunctive groundwater and surface water management, particularly as climate change alters water balance dynamics in the MDB.
Data-driven approaches, including deep learning, offer predictive capabilities that inform proactive water management strategies under future climate scenarios. These insights could also help with adapting the Basin Plan to evolving water demands, ensuring resilience and sustainability in groundwater resource planning.
Key findings / recommendations:
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The findings of this study suggest that groundwater extractions are potentially influenced by specific threshold conditions in hydrological and climatic factors. High groundwater withdrawals tend to occur when annual rainfall is below 400 mm, reservoir storage is either declining or consistently low (below 60% full), and flood inundation is minimal.
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Elevated potential evapotranspiration (PET) also contributes to increased groundwater demand, as drier conditions amplify overall consumptive requirements.
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Moderate actual evapotranspiration (ETa) levels, except during winter, further reinforce groundwater reliance. These conditions collectively signal an environment where surface water is insufficient, prompting greater tendency to use of groundwater reserves where available.
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Conversely, groundwater extractions tend to decrease when reservoir storage is increasing and especially when storage exceeds 80% capacity, and when flooding is significant.
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Seasonal patterns reveal strong correlations between annual rainfall, reservoir storage, and groundwater extractions from October to June.
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A deeper understanding of environmental thresholds and seasonal patterns can support more effective policies, ensuring sustainable groundwater use while maintaining ecological balance in the Basin.
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