Habitat Suitability Modelling of Fish, Aquatic...
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/t3.11.4.3-habitat-suitability-modelling-fish-aquatic-invertebrates-riparian-plants-murray-darling-basin.pdf
Authors: Shackleton, M.E., Gonzalez Murcia, S., and Bond, N. Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, Department of Environment and Genetics, Latrobe University
This project sought to understand current and future distributions of key taxa (fish, invertebrates, plants) in the Murray–Darling Basin. As well as providing more detailed and accurate maps of current species distributions, the inclusion of predictions under future hydro-climatic scenarios can help inform prioritisation of options for water management and complementary works (e.g., refuge restoration/creation) to meet the physical and functional habitat requirements of plant and animal communities in a drying climate.
This document outlines the methods, results and discussion on model use and performance, hydrological predictor variables, response to climate change, and management implications.
Key findings / recommendations:
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The outputs from this project include habitat suitability models for 32 fish, 123 invertebrate, 419 plant species.
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An analysis of changes in distribution in response to future climates revealed a broad range of predicted responses to future climate-scenarios. Among the fish and plants, winners tended to be invasive species and among invertebrates they tended to be tolerant taxa. Plants with strong associations to rivers and wetlands are predicted to decrease in range and prevalence under future climates.
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The results generated from the project are expected to be useful in guiding future planning that considers the effects of climate change on Basin ecosystems and biodiversity.
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