Development of bespoke tools for inclusion in toolkit
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/development-of-bespoke-tools-for-inclusion-in-toolkit.pdf
Authors: Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov, Muhammad Arif Watto, David Robertson, Shahriar Wahid and Ashkan Shokri
Date of publication: May 2025
Report full title: Development of bespoke tools for inclusion in toolkit: Assessing the sensitivity of agricultural outcomes to water allocation scenarios under the changing climate in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia
Water managers in the Basin face increasing challenges in balancing agricultural productivity, environmental sustainability, and economic efficiency amid climate uncertainty. While prior studies have explored water allocation mechanisms, limited research has systematically assessed the sensitivity of agricultural outcomes to different allocation scenarios under changing climate conditions.
This study addresses this gap using a hydro-economic model for the Macquarie catchment of the Basin. The model integrates climate projections, agricultural water demand, and economic factors to evaluate climate scenarios and water allocation policies.
The hydro-economic model incorporates detailed data on crop water needs, seasonal variability, and economic returns across four economic zones, the model assesses how agricultural practices may adapt to the impacts of climate and water management changes.
Key findings / recommendations:
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The results demonstrate the sensitivity of agricultural performance to both climate conditions and adaptation policies. Irrigation-focused water reallocation consistently leads to better outcomes compared to the baseline under the same climate scenarios, with all water allocation scenarios showing increases in agricultural outcomes under wetter climate conditions and decreases under drier conditions. Significant spatial and temporal variations are observed, with high-value horticultural areas exhibiting greater resilience than broadacre farming regions.
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This study provides a robust framework for evaluating trade-offs between agricultural productivity, economic efficiency, and environmental sustainability under climate change. It offers critical insights for policymakers in the Basin and has broader applications for other agricultural basins globally.
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