Methodological guidance for developing and...
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/SY-IHSEP-guidance-hydroclimate-scenarios-bpr-review.pdf
Project: Murray–Darling Basin Sustainable Yields 2 (MDBSY2)
Authors: Adjunct Professor William Young, (Chair), Honorary Professor Helen Cleugh, Professor Katherine Daniell, Associate Professor Anthony Kiem, Professor Rory Nathan, Brad Neal, Professor Seth Westra; and was supported by early career scientists Dr Danlu Guo and Dr Andrew John
This report is the second deliverable of the Independent Hydroclimate Scientific Expert Panel (IHSEP) under
Terms of Reference that were agreed with the Strategic Hydroclimate Working Group (SHWG) of the Murray–Darling Basin Officials Committee (BOC) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA). IHSEP was established in late 2023 to provide advice on approaches to develop hydroclimate scenarios to meet identified policy and planning needs, in particular to guide the second Murray–Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project (SY2) that will inform the 2026 Basin Plan Review. This report provides methodological guidance for the development and selection of hydroclimate scenarios that are fit for purpose for the modelling and analysis to inform the Basin Plan Review, including four specific recommendations.
Hydroclimate scenarios that are fit for purpose are unlikely to emerge from modelling teams working in isolation. Rather, this requires a process guided by MDBA in close consultation with key stakeholders, including through existing forums such as SHWG. This report presents an iterative process of converging to fit-for-purpose scenarios that relies on frequent exchanges across the science-policy interface.
IHSEP recommends that a “storyline” approach be adopted, where a storyline has multiple components including the hydroclimate data sequences needed for system modelling, as well as a narrative summarizing key characteristics of the hydroclimate (e.g. increased frequency of extreme droughts), details of supporting lines of evidence (e.g. climate model projections, palaeoclimate information, climate science, First Nations knowledge), relevance to expected policy decisions, and likelihood statements. Storylines move the decision focus from probability to plausibility, help navigate the deep uncertainty associated with climate projections, and support stakeholder engagement and communication. A storyline approach is usually adopted when it is not possible to quantify the likelihoods of alternative futures. Nonetheless, storylines will often have relative likelihood descriptors. A storyline approach enables exploration of “higher-impact, lower-likelihood” futures. When designed well, a storyline approach helps avoid the typical bias towards avoiding Type I errors (false positives – i.e. overstating climate change risks) over avoiding Type II errors (false negatives – i.e. ignoring likely change).
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