Synthesis of indirect impacts of climate...
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/synthesis-of-indirect-impacts-of-climate-change-on-water-availability-in-the-murray-darling-basin.pdf
Authors: David Robertson, Francis Chiew, Hongxing Zheng, Jorge Pena-Arancibia, Durga Lal Shrestha and David Post
Date of publication: December 2024
Future hydrological projections are generated to support water resources planning and guide investment into water infrastructure. These projections are classically developed using calibrated rainfall-runoff models that assume hydrological processes are stationary in time. Changes in catchment rainfall-runoff relationships, such as those observed during the Millenium Drought and in response to land use changes, are often poorly predicted by rainfall-runoff models used to generate hydrological projections. Therefore, using these models may under- or over-estimate the impacts of future climate changes on catchment runoff.
This report summarises key findings of investigations on the indirect impacts of climate change for the Basin undertaken through the MD-WERP Climate Adaption Theme.
Key findings / recommendations:
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There are many sources of hydrological non-stationarity that lead to transient and permanent changes in rainfall-runoff relationships over time.
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Processes that lead to changes in rainfall-runoff relationships modulate the impacts of climate change.
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The effects of many changes in rainfall-runoff relationships on runoff projections can be quantified, with some, for example runoff interception by farm dams, amplifying the projected declines in runoff, while others, such as changes to surface-groundwater connectivity, leading to a greater range of projections.
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The effects of some potential change in rainfall-runoff relationships on runoff projections can not necessarily be quantified due to limitations in knowledge of processes at the catchment scale, e.g. plant physiological responses to high carbon dioxide levels, or limited ability to predict the causes of future change, such as land use changes.
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