Seasonal forecasts for Hume and Dartmouth...
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Seasonal%20forecasts%20for%20Hume%20and%20Dartmouth%20Reservoir%20inflows.pdf
Authors: Andrew Bishop, Tyson Milne, David E. Robertson and Charlotte Dennis
Date of publication: June 2025
The report summarises the key outcomes of the investigation into how sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts may be of value to Murray–Darling Basin river operators.
It briefly describes the approach to generate ensemble forecasts of reservoir inflows and identifies the key findings from the investigations and how forecasts can potentially be used operationally.
The report also describes some of the additional work that is required to make use of the forecasts for operational decision-making.
Key findings / recommendations:
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Results show that there are small differences in the skill of rainfall forecasts of the SEAS5 and ACCESS-S2 climate model for individual issue times and lead times.
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These small differences in rainfall forecast skill translate into small differences in the skill of reservoir inflow forecasts for individual issue times and months.
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When translated into measures of operationally relevant indicators, such as the total inflow to the end of November, which informs reservoir filling targets, the difference between rainfall forecast forcing from the two climate models has little impact on indicator performance.
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The potential areas of river operations where improved seasonal forecasts could provide value are wide-ranging. In particular, any decision or planning decision/process that can benefit from a ‘longer-lens’ into future flow and related operational conditions could be of use to help understand and quantify the likelihood of exceeding thresholds or targets.
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