MD-WERP Theme: Climate adaptation
MD-WERP theme 1 project: Climate adaptation toolkit
Research Lead: Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University
Ecological models help predict how nature will respond to changes in climate or water use, but their results can vary a lot depending on how they are built. Even small decisions — like how information is grouped or which time periods are included — can lead to big differences in outcomes.
In managing river systems like the Murray–Darling Basin, thousands of flow targets are used to guide water allocation, but the way these targets are modelled and combined can greatly influence the predicted outcomes.
This research explores how sensitive environmental models are to different assumptions, especially in how water needs for ecosystems are represented. By identifying which choices have the biggest impact on predictions, and which approaches are more cautious, the study aims to support more informed, transparent, and effective environmental decision-making.