Understanding the impacts of hydrological...
URL: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/understanding-impacts-hydrological-non-stationarity_0.pdf
Authors: David Robertson, Hongxing Zheng, Julien Lerat and Francis Chiew
Date of publication: December 2024
This study provides insights into the likely impacts of hydrologic non-stationarity on runoff projections for the Basin, through two investigations assessing:
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the sensitivity of runoff projections to the period used to calibrate conceptual rainfall-runoff models
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the extent to which an approach to adapt existing hydrological models to better reflect catchment rainfall-runoff process alters the model sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall.
Key findings / recommendations:
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Overall, runoff projections are sensitive to hydrological non-stationarity. Due to the differences in the significance of hydrological non-stationarity across the catchments and the ability of the models to reflect these non-stationarities, the sensitivity of runoff projections to hydrological non-stationarity is spatially variable and model dependent.
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Projections generated using simpler hydrological models appear to be less sensitive to hydrological non-stationarity, but it is well established that simpler models often are limited in their ability to simulate changes in hydrological processes.
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Future research should pursue the development of hydrological models that can better represent historical non-stationarities using simplified parameterisations which, based on our analysis should produce robust runoff projections.
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